well that's good

"HammerheadFistpunch" (hammerheadfistpunch) 04/06/2020 at 11:45 • Filed to: None

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My projected curve from this source has gotten less depressing. I think it’s a little optimistic but if remotely accurate is great news. minimal death count, and were out of the curve completely by summer.

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Granted, this is with full social distancing in place through may. I honestly don’t know if that will happen. My gut tells me to basically double these projections.

ranwhenparked > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:03

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I think it is going to prove unsustainable to keep it up at this level beyond a month. Some form of social distancing could go on longer, but we're going to have to see some small scale/selective reopenings of certain businesses and services before it's totally over. 

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:04

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I am feeling like some of the more rural areas of the country, like Montana, W yoming, parts of Utah, Nevada, Idaho, ND, SD etc... have all but completely bypassed the initial virus spread . That’s not a bad thing, but when we open up the doors again we will be exposed and all get sick... We have like 25 cases in Flathead county, a county of 100,000 people, many more may be sick but we don’t know but it’s also safe to say it’s not community spread at this point. 

HammerheadFistpunch > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/06/2020 at 12:07

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I wonder about that too. The hope is that effective treatments and vaccines will be available when another round comes through. as one of our infectious disease docs said “we’re buying time until we have better solutions ”

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:08

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Yeah I’m hoping they are at least somewhat accurate. MN’s numbers went from ~1,000 projected deaths, to 625 over the last week according to IHME. We’re also under the pro jected needs vs. rooms/ICU beds/ventilators available for the first time today which is very comforting.

The MN government collected their own data early on, based off of MN specific data, which basically said, if we did nothing about 75,000 Minnesotans would die. I don’t want 625 people to die either, but if you put a gun to my head, I know which one I’d pick.

I’m damn proud of my state government and citizens (for the most part) on how we’ve handled this one.

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI 04/06/2020 at 12:09

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Here are the other 2 I’ve ben looking at every day:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Just Jeepin' > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:12

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I’ve seen some worrisome headlines about China seeing a resurgence , so don’t get too optimistic yet.

facw > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:13

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Of course the problem is that even if it does work like that, as soon as you end distancing, there’s a real chance it shoots up again. Granted it’s still better in terms of not overwhelming hospitals, but ultimately, to stop this from spreading we need testing/ tracking/isolation, a vaccine, or herd immunity from enough people getting it.

The first option seems the best, though currently we have too many people sick to implement it. We may need to take measures that make people uncomfortable (e.g. cellphone tracking to find out who has been near people who test positive so they can be tested).

A vaccine, if one is even possible, is likely too far out to even consider, keeping the economy shut down until 2021 is not tenable without major restructuring of the social order.

The herd immunity approach is certainly possible, but getting there likely involves a shit ton of additional people dying, which obviously isn’t desirable.

ranwhenparked > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:13

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Or we’ll just have to be ready to immediately clamp down with another shutdown at the first sign of a new wave, but let things pretty much get back to normal between waves.

Its sort of how we dealt with smallpox and polio before vaccines - not total shutdowns like this, but mitigation measures during outbreaks , back off in between. And we may never have a vaccine for this, so we have to figure out a pattern that works.

HammerheadFistpunch > Just Jeepin' 04/06/2020 at 12:16

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I take hope where I can get it.  Though I don’t think that suddenly may arrives and its “COVID who?” all the sudden.

HammerheadFistpunch > facw 04/06/2020 at 12:17

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were not out of the woods yet, but I think the major concern is getting over the dangerous growth curve down to manageable case numbers plus buying time to develop better treatments and ramp up capacity for PPE, ventilators, and beds.  

HammerheadFistpunch > ranwhenparked 04/06/2020 at 12:19

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The trouble with the vaccine is that this is a fast changing virus and what is is now will likely be something different come fall.  That being said, I think we can manage this down to levels normally associated with other coronavirus situations and have excess capacity to deal with flair ups.

facw > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:21

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Buying time definitely lets us do more.

Thisismydisplayname > facw 04/06/2020 at 12:21

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The other part of this is that at least now the CDC is recommending wearing masks by everyone, so the spread should be lessened when people venture back out.  

adamftw > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 12:24

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It’s silly to change projections after a Sunday. Wait til this evening or tomorrow morning.

facw > Thisismydisplayname 04/06/2020 at 12:24

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Not so much though. Fabric masks reduce virus counts by 2%-20% depending on the number of layers and how well they are worn. That’s helpful, especially in an exponential growth situation, so I don’t agree with those calling it pandemic theater, but obviously it’s no panacea  either.

Ash78, voting early and often > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/06/2020 at 12:39

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Actually, the media tells me it’s not about actual cases or population density prioritization, but that those states all have stupid Republican governors. Didn’t you get that memo? ;)

My biggest single fear is the summer exuberance in thinking we’re past all this. Then the beaches reopen and the  National Park travel glut brings a ton of latent cases to rural areas that can’t handle them.

Hopefully by that point we’ll be more experienced in dealing with it, so doctors and equipment can be more mobile.

DipodomysDeserti > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/06/2020 at 12:45

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Your county has about the same recorded infection rate as Maricopa county, which is one of the largest metro areas in the country and is experiencing community spread. We have a lot more resources to handle something like this and will still be screwed if we get a flare up. The most rural area of our state, the Navajo Nation, is experiencing an infection rate 3x higher than us.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Ash78, voting early and often 04/06/2020 at 12:46

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Except:

Chariotoflove > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 13:11

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I think there is valid reason for optimism that this outbreak will end in summer sometime. Some here are worried about a second surge once restrictions are lifted. This is a reasonable concern. We do not have a vaccine for this strain of virus, and by the time we do, it will have mutated, just like influenza does every year. Herd immunity is good, but is of less value the more a pathogen is prone to mutate.

The reality is that we have a new virus in the wild. It will likely  be with us now and forever after. Some p eople will get it every year, and some of them will die from it. This sounds harsh to type but the best we can hope for is to keep it tamped down enough to not overwhelm the health care system.

functionoverfashion > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 13:15

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I’ll take any signs of hope at the moment, it will make me feel like it’s worth all the trouble, and will make it easier, mentally, to get through what’s likely the rest of the school year under the current scenario. Our local economy and as a result, state budget, will be pretty well destroyed by this, no matter what. I feel like in a best case scenario we’re looking at something on the order of a 50% reduction in tourism-based income, which is the largest source of income for NH. At least it’s spread over two fiscal years? Not sure if that’s better or worse. 

Ash78, voting early and often > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/06/2020 at 13:47

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Please don’t tell CNN or HuffPost, it’ll ruin their “us vs them” mantra

Under_Score > facw 04/06/2020 at 13:59

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This is how I see it: there’s so much preventative stuff being made (face shields, ventilators, masks) that make this more bearable. These few weeks have allowed companies and hospitals to get equipment necessary in case there are many cases. With gradual reopens by the end of the month, cases will probably still develop, but the infrastructure is prepared to handle them. Hydroxychloroquine looks promising, too.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > facw 04/06/2020 at 14:03

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IMHO we’re not out of the woods until there’s 100% testing available... and a vaccine.  

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > facw 04/06/2020 at 14:07

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Testing/tracking/isolation is absolutely the only way to manage situations like these. Cat is out of the bag and reproducing like crazy at this point for that to work in this case, and I don’t know what that means as far as containment goes. May be we will be able to snuff it out, maybe we’ll fast track some kind of vaccine/cure, or maybe this is just a bug that will keep mutating and taking a baseline number of victims every year going forward.

But I sure hope this has been a wake up call for our fellow citizens and those in charge – as soon as we start seeing signs of something like this we MUST act decisively and immediately. The cost of not doing so will be much, much higher as we are seeing. Look to the countries that handled this right – South Korea, Singapore, etc. If we claim to be the best country in the world, it’s time we start acting like it.

facw > Under_Score 04/06/2020 at 14:14

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We still have nowhere near the supplies we’d need. It’s not like we had 90% or even 50% of what we’d require. It’s more like we had 5-10%, and for disposable supplies, stocks are mostly depleted. A month or two is not going to let us build our way out of the problem.

I wouldn’t get to excited about h ydroxychloroquine. The studies that have shown it as promising are tiny, non-random, non-controlled, and non-double-blind. There’s also been at least one study (with similar problems, though they did have a control group) that showed no benefit, which seems unlikely if the benefits are as massive as some people are claiming. Better trials are ongoing now, so hopefully we’ll have sound data within a few weeks. I hope it’s effective, but it really isn’t something we should be relying on.

Grindintosecond > HammerheadFistpunch 04/06/2020 at 14:15

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It MUST be gone by fall, or the colds and other flus can complicate the rural cases that will appear by then, as folks go visit family in Thanksgiving or come home from college, etc.

Under_Score > facw 04/06/2020 at 14:43

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I saw a story from local ABC news out in CA about a doctor who’s had good results with his patients. I hate pessimism during these times.

facw > Under_Score 04/06/2020 at 14:46

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Well you saw a doctor who has no idea how his patients would be doing without it, or whether they are typical. Which is why we do trials. As for pessimism, I don’t think it’s pessimism to say we have no idea if this stuff is working. That’s realism. Blind optimism really doesn’t help anyone here, we need to plan for the expected case (and ranges of probable variation), not just the best case.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/06/2020 at 15:24

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25 known cases